Prediction
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As of 30 October 2026, 08:11 UTC, versus prices Yes at a 54% chance and No at 46%.
YES if Axel Kicillof becomes the presidential candidate of Argentina's main Peronist coalition for the presidential election due on 24 Oct 2027. The main Peronist coalition is the party or alliance that includes the national Partido Justicialista (PJ); in Oct 2026 that is Fuerza Patria. If the PJ runs alone, its candidate counts. A person counts as the nominee only once the coalition has registered their candidacy for the first round and the competent Argentine electoral court has approved it (oficializada). Winning a primary is not enough until that approval comes. If no candidacy of the coalition is approved for the first round by 23:59 ET on 24 Oct 2027, or someone else is approved, this is NO. Replacing the nominee after approval changes nothing. The official announcements of the Cámara Nacional Electoral and the Dirección Nacional Electoral decide; consistent reports from reputable news outlets may also be used.
Each percentage is the market’s current estimate of how likely that answer is. A contract settles at 100p if the answer is right and at 0p if it is wrong.
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