Prediction
Answer Options
As of 30 October 2026, 09:59 UTC, the most likely answer on versus is 5 at a 44% chance, ahead of 6 or more at 41% and 4 at 15%.
Count how many of North Carolina's US House of Representatives seats go to the Democratic Party in the 2026 midterm elections, held on 3 November 2026, under the rules below. Only the regular House elections that choose voting members for the 120th Congress count; the US Senate race in North Carolina, other offices and special elections that only fill the rest of an unexpired term do not count, even when held on the same day. A runoff for a counted seat decides that seat. Each seat goes to the party under which its winner was elected; a member-elect who later switches party or leaves the seat after election day still counts for that original party. A winner elected as an independent counts for a party if, before election day, they formally caucus with it or announce that they intend to. If an independent winner's caucus choice is unknown on election day, wait for their announcement until 4 January 2027 at 11:59 PM ET: an announcement by then counts the seat for the announced party, and with no announcement by then the seat counts for no party. YES goes to the answer that contains the final Democratic total; the five answers cover every possible total, so exactly one answer is YES and all others are NO. Official information from the relevant state election authorities and the US Congress, together with reliable news coverage, decides.
Each percentage is the market’s current estimate of how likely that answer is. A contract settles at 100p if the answer is right and at 0p if it is wrong.
Reported by versus Markets
