Prediction
Answer Options
As of 30 October 2026, 10:03 UTC, versus prices Republican Party at a 97% chance and Democratic Party at 4%.
Each answer is a party. YES goes to the party whose candidate wins the U.S. House seat for Texas's 19th congressional district (TX-19) at the midterm election on 3 November 2026; the other answer settles NO. A winner's party is the affiliation listed on the ballot, or otherwise clearly identifiable, at the moment every 2026 House race has been conclusively called. A winner without a Democratic or Republican ballot affiliation is counted for whichever of those two parties they most recently said they would caucus with, judged at that same moment. If the winner cannot be assigned to either party this way, both answers settle NO. The winner is the candidate that reliable news organizations agree has won the seat; if their calls are unclear or conflict, the official results reported by the U.S. Federal Election Commission (FEC) decide. There is no separate settlement deadline, hour or time zone: the prediction settles once the race has been called and the winner's party can be fixed as described above, even if that takes days or weeks after election day, and if a call is withdrawn or reversed, for example after a recount, the final call counts.
Each percentage is the market’s current estimate of how likely that answer is. A contract settles at 100p if the answer is right and at 0p if it is wrong.
Reported by
