Prediction
Answer Options
As of 30 October 2026, 10:12 UTC, the most likely answer on versus is No Change at a 81% chance, ahead of 25 bps increase at 18% and 50+ bps increase at 5%.
YES goes to the listed answer that matches the change, in basis points (bps), to the South African Reserve Bank's repo rate decided at the November 2026 meeting of its Monetary Policy Committee (MPC), measured against the repo rate in force just before that meeting: 50+ bps decrease, 25 bps decrease, No Change, 25 bps increase or 50+ bps increase. If the rate is set as a range, the change to its upper bound is used. A cut or rise smaller than 25 bps counts as 25 bps; a larger move is rounded to the nearest multiple of 25 bps, and a move exactly halfway between two multiples is rounded away from zero (for example, 37.5 bps counts as 50 bps). The meeting is listed on the Reserve Bank's official calendar for 19 November 2026 (South African time, UTC+2), and the answer can be settled as soon as the MPC statement for that meeting is published. If the meeting is moved to a date and time before the next scheduled MPC meeting begins, the decision of the moved meeting counts; if it is cancelled, or no decision is announced before the next scheduled MPC meeting begins, No Change is YES. Rate changes made outside this meeting, such as emergency moves, do not count. Official information from the South African Reserve Bank, including the MPC statement and its calendar, decides. Exactly one listed answer is YES; all others are NO.
Each percentage is the market’s current estimate of how likely that answer is. A contract settles at 100p if the answer is right and at 0p if it is wrong.
Reported by versus Markets
