Prediction
Answer Options
As of 30 October 2026, 09:59 UTC, the most likely answer on versus is Republican 35 to 40% at a 45% chance, ahead of Republican 40% or more at 45% and Republican 20 to 25% at 44%.
Settled by the 2026 general election for the US House of Representatives seat of Virginia's 6th congressional district (VA-06), scheduled for 3 November 2026. The margin is the gap in percentage points between the vote shares of the candidates who finish first and second, where each share is that candidate's valid votes divided by the total of valid votes cast in the race. Example: a 62% to 38% result is a 24-point margin. The numbers in the answers are such margins, not vote shares. If the Republican nominee finishes first, YES is the "Republican wins by" answer whose range contains the margin; if the Democratic nominee finishes first, YES is "Democrat wins by any margin". Every other answer is NO, and at most one answer can be YES. Each range includes its lower number and excludes its upper number, so a margin exactly on a boundary counts for the higher range. "Republican" and "Democrat" mean the candidates nominated by those two parties; if a party replaces its nominee before election day, the replacement takes over the same answers. Independent candidates represent neither party. If a candidate who is neither of the two nominees finishes first, every answer is NO. Ties for first place: the two party nominees are the candidates covered by the answers, each identified by the surname printed on the ballot. If covered candidates are among those tied, YES is the lowest range of the tied covered candidate whose ballot surname comes first alphabetically (the lowest Republican range is "Republican wins by 0 to 10 points"; the Democrat takes "Democrat wins by any margin"). If only other candidates are tied, every answer is NO. Settlement uses the official vote count once it has been certified. If a recount begins before certification, settlement waits until the recount is finished and the result is official. If the result is not definitively known by 30 June 2027 at 11:59 PM ET, every answer is NO. Official results certified by the Virginia State Board of Elections decide; overwhelming agreement in reliable election reporting may also be used.
Each percentage is the market’s current estimate of how likely that answer is. A contract settles at 100p if the answer is right and at 0p if it is wrong.
Reported by versus Markets
