Prediction
Answer Options
As of 30 October 2026, 07:10 UTC, the most likely answer on versus is ↑ 1520 at a >99% chance, ahead of ↑ 1530 at >99% and ↑ 1540 at >99%.
This market resolves to “Yes” if any model on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) reaches at least the specified Arena Score by January 1, 2027 at 05:59 CET. Otherwise, it resolves to “No.” Resolution will be based on the “Score” section of the “Text Arena” leaderboard at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text, with style control turned off. The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard at https://lmarena.ai/. If this source is temporarily unavailable, the market will remain open until it becomes accessible again. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to “No.”
Each percentage is the market’s current estimate of how likely that answer is. A contract settles at 100p if the answer is right and at 0p if it is wrong.
Reported by versus Markets
