Prediction
Answer Options
This market resolves according to the change in basis points to the target for the overnight rate resulting from the Bank of Canada's October 2026 interest rate announcement, relative to the level it stood at before that announcement. The resolution source is official information from the Bank of Canada, including the statement or release from its October 2026 interest rate announcement, scheduled for 28 October 2026, as listed on the official Bank of Canada calendar (https://www.bankofcanada.ca/core-functions/monetary-policy/key-interest-rate/#target-dates). This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Canada's statement or release for that decision is issued with the relevant data. If the specified rate is defined by an upper and a lower bound, the relevant change is the change to the upper bound. If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change is rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps are rounded to 25 bps — a rise or fall of 10 bps would be treated as 25 bps. Increases or decreases of more than 25 bps are rounded to the nearest 25 bps, rounding away from zero where equidistant — so a rise or fall of 37.5 bps would be treated as 50 bps. Displayed options of "Increase" or "Decrease" include policy rate movements of any size. If the specified announcement is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled announcement, this market resolves on the outcome of that postponed announcement. If the announcement is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced before the start of the next scheduled announcement, this market resolves to the "No Change" bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified announcement will not be considered.
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