Prediction
Answer Options
As of 30 October 2026, 10:02 UTC, the most likely answer on versus is Republican 0-3% at a 21% chance, ahead of Democrat 0-3% at 21% and Republican 3-6% at 17%.
YES belongs to the answer matching the winner and winning margin in the 2026 NY-21 House election, expected on 3 November. Subtract the runner-up’s share of all valid ballots from the winner’s share to get the percentage-point gap. Each share uses that candidate’s valid votes divided by every valid vote cast in the election. Democrat and Republican refer to their respective nominees, excluding independents regardless of affiliation. If a named nominee is replaced before election day, use the replacement and update the displayed name. A value exactly on a bracket boundary goes into the higher band. For a tie at the top, use the lowest band: between two listed candidates, choose the earliest ballot surname alphabetically, even for party-labelled answers; between a listed and unlisted candidate, use the listed candidate; between only unlisted candidates, use Other. Use the vote total once official. A recount begun before officialization delays settlement until it finishes and the count is official. If the outcome remains indefinite at 11:59 PM ET on 30 June 2027, use Other. The New York authority certifying the result is primary; overwhelming agreement among reputable reports may also be used. Answers that do not match the resulting winner and band are NO.
Each percentage is the market’s current estimate of how likely that answer is. A contract settles at 100p if the answer is right and at 0p if it is wrong.
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