Prediction
Answer Options
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As of 30 October 2026, 10:02 UTC, versus prices Yes at a 7% chance and No at 93%.
YES if the Republican Party nominee receives the most valid votes in Tarrant County, Texas, in the 3 November 2026 general election for U.S. Senate. If two or more candidates have equal valid totals, rank them by last name alphabetically and treat the first alphabetically as highest. If the Republican nominee changes before election day, the replacement remains the Republican nominee for YES. NO if any other candidate, including the Democratic nominee, an independent or a minor-party candidate, ranks first, or if the county result is not definitively known by 31 March 2027 at 11:59 PM ET; an unlisted Other outcome maps to NO. Concordant results from credible reporting decide. If those reports are ambiguous, official results from Texas, including the Secretary of State, and Tarrant County decide.
Each percentage is the market’s current estimate of how likely that answer is. A contract settles at 100p if the answer is right and at 0p if it is wrong.
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