Prediction
Answer Options
As of 30 October 2026, 08:14 UTC, versus prices Brenton Awa (R) at a 5% chance and Jill Tokuda (D) at 98%.
The two answers stand for parties, not for the people named: the Republican Party, whose candidate is Brenton Awa, and the Democratic Party, whose candidate is Jill Tokuda. YES goes to the party whose candidate wins the US House seat for Hawaii's 2nd congressional district (HI-02) at the general election on 3 November 2026. Because each answer belongs to a party, it still counts if that party's candidate is replaced before the vote. The winner's party is the one shown with their name on the ballot, or another clearly identifiable party tie, judged at the moment every 2026 US House race has been conclusively called. A winner without a Democratic or Republican ballot label is counted for the party they most recently said they intend to caucus with at that moment. If the winner cannot be matched to either party this way, both answers are NO, so at most one answer can be YES. Broad agreement among reliable news reports decides who won; if that leaves doubt, the official US result reported by the Federal Election Commission decides. Voting ends when polls close on 3 November 2026, local time in the district; there is no other deadline, and the prediction settles once the race has been called as described here.
Each percentage is the market’s current estimate of how likely that answer is. A contract settles at 100p if the answer is right and at 0p if it is wrong.
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