Prediction
Answer Options
As of 30 October 2026, 09:03 UTC, the most likely answer on versus is Brown 6-9% at a 21% chance, ahead of Brown 3-6% at 21% and Brown 0-3% at 20%.
This is about Ohio's 2026 U.S. Senate special election, expected on 3 November 2026. Answers starting with 'Husted' stand for the Republican Party nominee (Jon Husted) and answers starting with 'Brown' for the Democratic Party nominee (Sherrod Brown); if either is replaced as nominee before election day, those answers follow the replacement. Independent candidates count for neither party. The margin is the absolute gap, in percentage points, between the vote shares of the first- and second-placed candidates, where each share equals that candidate's valid votes divided by all valid votes cast. YES goes to the answer for the first-placed nominee's party whose band contains the margin; a margin exactly on the boundary between two bands goes to the higher band. If the two nominees tie for first place, the lowest band of the nominee whose ballot-listed surname comes first alphabetically is YES. If one nominee ties for first with a candidate who is neither nominee, that nominee's lowest band is YES. If two or more candidates who are neither nominee tie for first, or such a candidate finishes first outright, every answer is NO. The official vote count decides once it has been made official; a recount started before then keeps the prediction open until the recount is over and the count is official. If the result is not definitively known by 30 June 2027 at 11:59 PM ET, every answer is NO. At most one answer can be YES. Official results certified by Ohio's state election authority decide; overwhelming agreement in reliable news coverage may also be used.
Each percentage is the market’s current estimate of how likely that answer is. A contract settles at 100p if the answer is right and at 0p if it is wrong.
Reported by versus Markets
