Prediction
Answer Options
As of 30 October 2026, 10:15 UTC, the most likely answer on versus is Liberal–National at a 87% chance, ahead of Labor at 15% and One Nation at 5%.
Settled by the next Victorian state election, scheduled for 28 November 2026, which elects the 61st Parliament of Victoria, Australia. All parties and coalitions are ranked by how many seats they win in the Legislative Assembly, the lower house of Victoria's parliament. Liberal–National means the Liberal–National Coalition: it gets every seat won by the Liberal Party and by the Nationals, whatever their arrangement in parliament, and its first-preference total adds up the votes of both parties. Parties or coalitions level on seats are ranked by their total of valid first-preference votes, highest first; if still level, by alphabetical order of their names. The listed answer that is ranked first is YES and the other answers are NO. If a party or coalition that is not listed is ranked first, every listed answer is NO, so at most one answer can be YES. If the result is not definitively known by 31 March 2027 at 11:59 PM ET, every listed answer is NO. The result as shown by reliable election reporting decides; if there is any ambiguity, only the official results of the Victorian Electoral Commission (vec.vic.gov.au) count.
Each percentage is the market’s current estimate of how likely that answer is. A contract settles at 100p if the answer is right and at 0p if it is wrong.
Reported by versus Markets
