Prediction
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As of 30 October 2026, 09:02 UTC, versus prices Yes at a 3% chance and No at 97%.
This prediction concerns the Tlaxcala governor election scheduled for 6 Jun 2027. YES if Miriam Martínez Sánchez wins that election; otherwise NO. A temporary or caretaker appointment alone does not count as an election victory. If no definitive result is known by 31 Dec 2027 at 23:59 ET, this prediction settles NO. Determine the winner from agreement across reputable news reporting. If those reports leave the outcome ambiguous, use only governmental election results from the state and Mexico. Those official sources include Mexico's National Electoral Institute (INE) and the Electoral Institute of Tlaxcala.
Each percentage is the market’s current estimate of how likely that answer is. A contract settles at 100p if the answer is right and at 0p if it is wrong.
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