Prediction
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As of 30 October 2026, 09:01 UTC, versus prices Yes at a 5% chance and No at 95%.
YES if Coffie Emeni Samuel is elected Governor of Akwa Ibom State, Nigeria, in the 2027 governorship election, currently scheduled for 6 February 2027; otherwise NO. If that vote is officially moved, the rescheduled vote that picks the governor whose term begins in 2027 counts instead. Acting, interim and caretaker governors do not qualify. To be elected, a candidate must meet the requirements of Nigerian law, including receiving the most votes and the geographic spread of votes that the constitution demands. If nobody wins outright, any further election or runoff held before the deadline also counts. If another candidate is elected, or no candidate has been definitively elected by 31 October 2027 at 11:59 PM ET, the answer is NO. Reliable news coverage of the result is used; where it is unclear, only official results from Nigeria's electoral body INEC (the Independent National Electoral Commission) and other Nigerian government sources decide.
Each percentage is the market’s current estimate of how likely that answer is. A contract settles at 100p if the answer is right and at 0p if it is wrong.
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