Prediction
Answer Options
As of 30 October 2026, 09:03 UTC, versus prices Lloyd Smucker (R) at a 97% chance and Nancy Mannion (D) at 7%.
YES goes to the listed party whose candidate wins U.S. House district PA-11 in the 3 November 2026 midterm election. A candidate’s party is the ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation at the time all 2026 House elections are conclusively called by the calling sources. If the candidate has no Democratic or Republican ballot affiliation, use the party with which the candidate most recently expressed an intent to caucus at that time. A consensus of credible election reporting determines the result; if it is ambiguous, the official United States result from the Federal Election Commission controls. Resolution follows those source calls; no separate ET cutoff is specified.
Each percentage is the market’s current estimate of how likely that answer is. A contract settles at 100p if the answer is right and at 0p if it is wrong.
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