Prediction
Answer Options
As of 30 October 2026, 08:11 UTC, the most likely answer on versus is Democrat 35-40% at a 32% chance, ahead of Democrat 30-35% at 30% and Democrat 25-30% at 19%.
This prediction covers the general election for Utah's 1st congressional district (UT-01) in the US House of Representatives, expected on 3 November 2026. The winning margin is the gap in percentage points between the first-placed and second-placed candidates: each of those two candidates' valid votes is divided by the total of all valid votes cast, and the smaller share is taken from the larger one. 'Democrat' means the Democratic Party nominee and 'Republican' means the Republican Party nominee; independent candidates represent neither. If a nominee is replaced before election day, the party's replacement nominee takes their place. If the Democrat finishes first, YES goes to the displayed bracket that contains the Democrat's winning margin; a margin exactly on the boundary between two brackets belongs to the higher bracket (for example, exactly 35 points counts as '35 to under 40 points'). If the Republican finishes first, YES goes to 'Republican wins' whatever the margin. If the Democrat and the Republican tie for first place, the one whose last name as printed on the ballot comes first alphabetically is treated as the winner, in their lowest bracket ('Democrat wins by under 10 points' or 'Republican wins'). If one of them ties for first place with any other candidate, that nominee is treated as the winner in their lowest bracket. If any other candidate finishes first outright, or only other candidates tie for first, every displayed answer is NO. The official vote count decides once it has been made official; if a recount starts before then, the prediction stays open until the recount ends and the count is official. If the result is not definitively known by 30 June 2027 at 11:59 PM ET, every displayed answer is NO. Official results from the Utah authority that certifies the election are the main basis; overwhelming agreement among reliable news reports may also be used. At most one displayed answer is YES.
Each percentage is the market’s current estimate of how likely that answer is. A contract settles at 100p if the answer is right and at 0p if it is wrong.
Reported by versus Markets
