Prediction
Answer Options
As of 30 October 2026, 09:02 UTC, versus prices Mark Alford (R) at a 97% chance and Jordan Herrera (D) at 6%.
YES goes to the listed party whose candidate wins the U.S. House seat for Missouri's 4th congressional district (MO-04) at the 2026 midterm election on 3 November 2026. Only the winner's party matters, whoever the winning candidate turns out to be, including a replacement nominee or a write-in winner. A winner's party is the one listed for them on the ballot, or otherwise clearly identifiable, at the point when every 2026 House race has been conclusively called. A winner who is not on the ballot as a Democrat or a Republican counts for whichever of those two parties they have most recently said they intend to caucus with at that point. If the winner cannot be assigned to either party this way, both listed answers are NO, so at most one answer is YES. Matching race calls from major news organisations decide; if the reporting is ambiguous, only the official results published by the U.S. Federal Election Commission (FEC) decide. Predictions close on 3 November 2026 at 11:59 PM ET (04:59 UTC on 4 November). There is no fixed settlement deadline: counting can take days or weeks, and the result is settled once the race has been called and the winner's party is clear under these rules.
Each percentage is the market’s current estimate of how likely that answer is. A contract settles at 100p if the answer is right and at 0p if it is wrong.
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