Prediction
Answer Options
Learn as you go
As of 30 October 2026, 10:12 UTC, versus prices Yes at a 4% chance and No at 96%.
YES if PRI (Institutional Revolutionary Party) wins the most seats in Mexico's Chamber of Deputies (Cámara de Diputados) in the legislative election scheduled for 6 June 2027; otherwise NO. Only the seats won by each party itself count, not those of an alliance or coalition it belongs to. The party abbreviations used are PAN (National Action Party), PRI (Institutional Revolutionary Party), PT (Labor Party), PVEM (Ecologist Green Party of Mexico), MC (Citizens' Movement) and Morena (National Regeneration Movement). If two or more parties tie for the most seats, the one with more valid votes in this election ranks first; if they are still level, the party whose abbreviation comes first alphabetically among PAN, PRI, PT, PVEM, MC and Morena ranks first. If another party wins the most seats, or the result is not definitively known by 31 March 2028 at 11:59 PM ET, the answer is NO. Consistent reliable election reporting decides; if it is unclear or conflicting, only the official results of Mexico's National Electoral Institute (INE) decide.
Each percentage is the market’s current estimate of how likely that answer is. A contract settles at 100p if the answer is right and at 0p if it is wrong.
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