Prediction
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As of 30 October 2026, 10:12 UTC, versus prices Yes at a 7% chance and No at 93%.
YES if Oregon is the US state whose November 2026 election for governor ends with the smallest winning margin of all eligible states; if any other state has the smallest margin, NO. Eligible races are every regular or special governor election that, as of 31 October 2026 at 11:59 PM ET, is scheduled to take place in November 2026; general election day is 3 November 2026. Washington DC, US territories and any other area that is not a state do not count. The margin is the absolute gap between the vote shares of the winner and the runner-up, where each share is that candidate's valid votes divided by all valid votes cast in that race. If a runoff, ranked-choice count or other multi-round process is used, the margin comes from the round that decides the winner. If two or more states end with exactly the same smallest margin, only the tied state that is earliest in alphabetical order is YES. If Oregon holds no eligible governor election, NO. Official results from the state election authorities that certify statewide elections decide; reliable news coverage may also be used.
Each percentage is the market’s current estimate of how likely that answer is. A contract settles at 100p if the answer is right and at 0p if it is wrong.
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