Prediction
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As of 30 October 2026, 08:10 UTC, versus prices Yes at a 3% chance and No at 97%.
This prediction concerns the election for governor of Querétaro scheduled for 6 Jun 2027, local time. YES if Abigail Arredondo Ramos wins that election. NO if another candidate wins or if there is still no definitive result at 23:59 ET on 31 Dec 2027. An appointment as interim governor or caretaker does not count. Consistent accounts from reputable news organisations establish the election outcome. If those accounts leave the outcome uncertain, use only official election results from Mexican national authorities and the state authorities in Querétaro. These include Mexico's National Electoral Institute and Querétaro's Electoral Institute. A delay does not change which election is covered; the final reporting cut-off remains 23:59 ET on 31 Dec 2027.
Each percentage is the market’s current estimate of how likely that answer is. A contract settles at 100p if the answer is right and at 0p if it is wrong.
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