Prediction
Answer Options
YES if the first round of Bulgaria's 2026 presidential election, expected on 25 October 2026, ends in a first-place finish for Andrey Gyurov by under 10 points; any other result gives NO. The margin is the absolute gap in percentage points between the shares of valid votes won by the first- and second-place candidates, each share being that candidate's valid votes divided by all valid votes cast. Iliana Iotova and Andrey Gyurov count as individual ballot candidates, not as party options; party affiliation and replacement nominees do not change the answer. A margin sitting exactly on the line between two bands counts in the higher band. If first place is tied, the candidate among Iotova and Gyurov whose ballot surname comes first alphabetically is selected, and either named candidate is selected ahead of any other tied candidate; if only other candidates share first place, NO. The selected candidate receives the lowest margin band, under 10 points. If Gyurov is selected by that tie order, YES; if Iotova or only other candidates are selected, NO. The certified official count decides. If a recount begins while the count remains unofficial, settlement waits until the recount is complete and the count is officially certified. If the result is not definitively known by 30 June 2027 at 11:59 PM ET, NO. Official results from Bulgaria's Central Election Commission decide; only overwhelming agreement among trustworthy reports may be used as a fallback.
Reported by versus Markets
