Prediction
Answer Options
As of 30 October 2026, 08:14 UTC, versus prices Yes at a 52% chance and No at 48%.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if at least one inmate is officially held at Alcatraz Federal Penitentiary on Alcatraz Island by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The inmate must be detained by the U.S. federal government as part of a formal correctional or detention program. Temporary holds of less than 24 hours or symbolic events will not count. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Each percentage is the market’s current estimate of how likely that answer is. A contract settles at 100p if the answer is right and at 0p if it is wrong.
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