Prediction
Answer Options
As of 30 October 2026, 09:02 UTC, versus prices Republican Party at a 4% chance and Democratic Party at 96%.
YES goes to the listed party whose candidate wins the U.S. House seat for Connecticut's 4th congressional district (CT-04) in the 2026 midterm elections, with the general election held on 3 November 2026; the winner is the candidate elected to the seat in that election, including after any recount, runoff or ranked-choice count. The winner's party is the affiliation shown on the ballot, or one that is otherwise clearly identifiable, at the moment reputable news outlets have conclusively called every 2026 House race. A winner whose ballot affiliation is neither Democratic nor Republican counts for whichever of those two parties they most recently said they intend to caucus with, judged at that same moment. If the winner cannot be tied to either party in this way, both listed answers are NO, so at most one listed answer can be YES. The winner follows broad agreement among reputable news outlets; if that reporting is ambiguous, only the official results published by the U.S. Federal Election Commission (fec.gov) decide. Predictions close on 3 November 2026 at 11:59 PM ET (04:59 UTC on 4 November). There is no fixed settlement deadline: the outcome is settled once every 2026 House race has been conclusively called, which is when the winner's party is fixed.
Each percentage is the market’s current estimate of how likely that answer is. A contract settles at 100p if the answer is right and at 0p if it is wrong.
Reported by versus Markets
