Prediction
Answer Options
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As of 30 October 2026, 09:07 UTC, versus prices Yes at a 13% chance and No at 87%.
YES applies only if the Institutional Revolutionary Party (PRI) ranks first after all 36 seats in Tamaulipas's state Congress are assigned from the state legislative election held on 6 June 2027. Compare party seat totals; for a seat tie, the party whose proportional-representation list has more valid ballots ranks higher, then alphabetical order among Morena, PAN, PRI, PVEM, PT and MC decides. Credit each district seat to the party assigned to its elected deputy in the final official result under the registered coalition or common-candidacy agreement, never to a coalition. Credit each proportional seat to its allocated party, and ignore later changes of affiliation or parliamentary group. If another listed or unlisted party ranks above PRI, answer NO. If authorities have not established a definitive result by 31 March 2028 at 11:59 PM ET, the event outcome is Other; because this binary question lists only Yes and No, resolve it NO. Reputable election reporting may be used; when reports conflict or are unclear, official results from the Instituto Electoral de Tamaulipas (IETAM) and Mexican authorities decide.
Each percentage is the market’s current estimate of how likely that answer is. A contract settles at 100p if the answer is right and at 0p if it is wrong.
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