Prediction
Answer Options
As of 30 October 2026, 10:11 UTC, the most likely answer on versus is Above 2.5% at a 53% chance, ahead of 2.0% to 2.5% at 52% and 1.5% to 2.0% at 4%.
Exactly one listed range is YES, based on the seasonally adjusted real GDP growth of the United States for calendar year 2026 as stated in the advance estimate for the fourth quarter of 2026 published by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), expected in January 2027. The figure used is the full-year growth rate, normally given as the percentage change from the 2025 annual level of real GDP to the 2026 annual level. Each range includes its lower boundary, so a value exactly on a boundary belongs to the higher range: for example 2.0% falls in “2.0% to under 2.5%” and 2.5% falls in “2.5% or more”. Only that advance estimate counts; any later revision is ignored. BEA normally releases it at 8:30 AM ET on bea.gov, and that release decides.
Each percentage is the market’s current estimate of how likely that answer is. A contract settles at 100p if the answer is right and at 0p if it is wrong.
Reported by versus Markets
