How big will the win be in California's 51st congressional district?

As of 30 October 2026, 09:02 UTC, the most likely answer on versus is Democratic lead from 25 to under 30 points at a 46% chance, ahead of Democratic lead from 20 to under 25 points at 44% and Democratic lead from 10 to under 15 points at 44%.

Category

politics

Closes

2026-11-03 12:00 UTC

Answers

9

Chances as of

2026-10-30 09:02 UTC

This prediction is settled by the official result of the 2026 general election for the US House of Representatives seat of California's 51st congressional district (CA-51), currently scheduled for 3 November 2026. Primary elections and contests for state legislative seats do not count. The margin is the gap, in percentage points, between the candidates who finish first and second. Each of their two shares equals that candidate's valid votes divided by the total of all valid votes cast in this House race, and the smaller share is then subtracted from the larger one. YES goes to the answer that names the party of the first-place finisher and whose range contains that margin; the answer 'Republican victory' has no range and is YES whenever a Republican candidate finishes first, whatever the margin. Each range includes its lower figure and excludes its upper figure, so a margin landing exactly on a boundary goes to the higher range (for example, a lead of exactly 35 points counts as 'Democratic lead from 35 to under 40 points', not 'Democratic lead from 30 to under 35 points'). The Democratic answers cover any candidate on the general-election ballot who represents the Democratic Party, and the Republican answers any candidate on that ballot who represents the Republican Party; if the top two finishers belong to the same party, that party's answer for the winner's lead applies. A candidate of any other party or of no party counts for neither. If first place ends in a tie between two or more candidates and at least one of them is a Democratic or Republican candidate, the tied Democratic or Republican candidate whose surname as listed on the ballot comes first alphabetically decides, and YES goes to the lowest answer of that candidate's party: 'Democratic lead from 0 to under 10 points' for a Democrat, 'Republican victory' for a Republican. If the first-place finisher, or every candidate tied for first place, is neither a Democratic nor a Republican candidate, every listed answer is NO. The vote count decides once it has been made official; if a recount begins before then, the prediction stays open until the recount is finished and the count is official. If the result is still not definitively known by 30 June 2027 at 11:59 PM ET, every listed answer is NO. At most one listed answer is YES. Certified results published by the California state election authority that certifies this race decide; overwhelming agreement among reliable news reports may also be used.