Prediction
Answer Options
As of 30 October 2026, 09:07 UTC, versus prices Yes at a 26% chance and No at 74%.
YES applies if xAI makes a model explicitly called Grok 5, or clearly identified as its next flagship generation after Grok 4, available to the general public by 31 December 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Public access includes an open beta or open rolling waitlist; private or closed access does not. Any model released as part of the Grok 4 generation, such as Grok 4.6 or Grok 4.7 or a similar version, never counts. Task-specialised or cost-efficiency models count only if xAI explicitly brands them Grok 5 or clearly announces them as its next flagship Grok generation. xAI must publicly announce general access, or the model must be publicly accessible and explicitly labelled on xAI's official site; placeholder text, naming errors, or a displayed version that is not actually accessible do not count. Official xAI information is primary, with convergent reliable reports as corroboration. Otherwise NO.
Each percentage is the market’s current estimate of how likely that answer is. A contract settles at 100p if the answer is right and at 0p if it is wrong.
Reported by versus Markets
