Prediction
Answer Options
As of 30 October 2026, 10:11 UTC, the most likely answer on versus is Democratic lead from 10 to under 15 points at a 34% chance, ahead of Democratic lead from 5 to under 10 points at 34% and Democratic lead from 0 to under 5 points at 26%.
At most one answer is YES: the one whose party and bracket match the outcome of Minnesota's election for a seat in the United States Senate, scheduled for 3 November 2026. This is the federal U.S. Senate race, not the elections to the Minnesota State Senate, the upper house of the state legislature. The margin is the absolute gap, in percentage points, between the candidates finishing first and second, where each candidate's share equals his or her valid votes divided by all valid votes cast in the race. The party named in each answer is the party of the first-place finisher: Democratic means the nominee of the Democratic Party (in Minnesota, the Democratic-Farmer-Labor Party) and Republican means the nominee of the Republican Party; independent candidates count for neither party. Candidate names may be shown for convenience; if a party replaces its nominee before election day, the replacement counts for that party. A margin falling exactly on a bracket boundary counts in the higher bracket. If anyone other than the Democratic or Republican nominee finishes first, every listed answer is NO. Should first place end in a tie between two or more candidates, YES goes to the tied Democratic or Republican nominee's answer for a lead from 0 to under 5 points; if both nominees are tied with each other, the one whose surname as listed on the ballot comes first alphabetically decides; if the tie involves only other candidates, every listed answer is NO. The official count decides once it has been made official; if a recount begins before then, the prediction stays open until the recount is finished and the count is official. If the result is not definitively known by 30 June 2027 at 11:59 PM ET, every listed answer is NO. Official results from the Minnesota state authority that certifies the election decide; overwhelming agreement among reputable news reports may also be used.
Each percentage is the market’s current estimate of how likely that answer is. A contract settles at 100p if the answer is right and at 0p if it is wrong.
Reported by versus Markets
