Prediction
Answer Options
As of 30 October 2026, 10:11 UTC, versus prices James Marter (R) at a 4% chance and Lauren Underwood (D) at 97%.
YES goes to the answer for the party whose candidate wins the US House seat for Illinois's 14th congressional district (IL-14) in the 2026 midterms (general election on 3 November 2026; a runoff that decides the seat also counts). Only the winner's party counts, not the person: the candidates include James Marter (Republican) and Lauren Underwood (Democrat), and a replacement nominee still counts for their party's answer. The winner's party is the one shown on the ballot, or another clearly identifiable party affiliation, as it stands when every 2026 House race has been conclusively called. A winner without a Democratic or Republican ballot affiliation counts for whichever of those two parties they most recently said they would caucus with, judged at that same point. If the winner cannot be placed in either party this way, both answers are NO; at most one answer is YES. Broad agreement among reliable election reports decides who won; if those reports are unclear or conflict, the official results published by the US Federal Election Commission decide. There is no fixed cutoff time: counting goes on after the polls close on 3 November 2026 (local time), and the result is settled once IL-14 and every other 2026 House race have been conclusively called.
Each percentage is the market’s current estimate of how likely that answer is. A contract settles at 100p if the answer is right and at 0p if it is wrong.
Reported by versus Markets
