Prediction
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As of 30 October 2026, 10:03 UTC, versus prices Yes at a 36% chance and No at 64%.
This prediction concerns Democratic representation in the 120th US Congress following the 2026 midterms, whose general election is on 3 Nov 2026, local time. YES requires at least 250 voting House seats and at least 54 Senate seats; falling short of either threshold means NO. For the Senate, include regular and special contests scheduled, as of 31 Oct 2026, to take place during November 2026. Also include seats not being contested, credited to the party holding them on election day. A vacant Senate seat with no November contest scheduled as of 31 Oct is credited to the most recent occupant's party. For the House, count the midterm contests choosing voting representatives for the new Congress. Use runoff outcomes to attribute seats wherever necessary, even when voting happens after November. For a contested seat, retain the party under which the winner was elected, despite any switch or departure before Congress organises. For senators whose seats are not being contested, retain the party held on election day despite a later switch or departure. Count independents with a party when they formally join its caucus; newly elected independents may instead announce that intention. When caucus intentions remain unknown on election day, settlement may wait until the relevant announcement or 23:59 ET on 4 Jan 2027, whichever arrives first. Without an announcement by that cutoff, the independent contributes to no party's total. Use official state election records and official information from the US Congress; matching reports from reliable news organisations also provide evidence.
Each percentage is the market’s current estimate of how likely that answer is. A contract settles at 100p if the answer is right and at 0p if it is wrong.
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