Prediction
Answer Options
As of 30 October 2026, 08:19 UTC, the most likely answer on versus is Republican: 0 to under 5 points at a 45% chance, ahead of Republican: 10 to under 15 points at 45% and Democrat: 0 to under 5 points at 43%.
The YES bracket identifies the winning party and its margin over the runner-up in the 2026 VA-05 House election, expected on 3 November 2026. The margin is the absolute percentage-point gap between the top two candidates: calculate each candidate’s share as their valid votes divided by all valid votes cast in that election. Democratic and Republican nominees represent their party’s answer, including a replacement nominee chosen before election day; independents represent neither party. A margin on a shared boundary belongs to the higher bracket. If listed candidates tie for first, select the lowest margin bracket for the one whose ballot surname is alphabetically first, even when the answer is labelled by party. A listed/unlisted tie selects the listed candidate’s lowest bracket; a tie entirely among unlisted candidates gives Other. Use the official count. A recount begun before the count becomes official delays settlement until the recount ends and the count is official. If the result is not definitive by 30 June 2027 at 11:59 PM ET, the result is Other and all listed brackets are NO. The Virginia authority certifying this election supplies the primary results; overwhelming agreement among reliable reporting may also be used.
Each percentage is the market’s current estimate of how likely that answer is. A contract settles at 100p if the answer is right and at 0p if it is wrong.
Reported by versus Markets
