Prediction
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As of 30 October 2026, 08:18 UTC, versus prices Yes at a 31% chance and No at 69%.
Only the U.S. Senate general elections in Iowa, Kansas and Nebraska on 3 November 2026 are compared. YES if the Republican Senate candidate in Nebraska receives a smaller share of the vote than the Republican Senate candidates in the other two states; otherwise NO. A candidate's share is their valid votes divided by all valid votes cast in that state's Senate race. Where a race has a runoff, ranked-choice voting or another count over several rounds, the last reported round that still includes a Republican is used, counting only ballots not exhausted in that round; if that round has more than one Republican, the higher Republican share is used. If two or more of the three states share exactly the same lowest figure, the one whose name comes first alphabetically counts as lowest. A state whose share cannot be determined by 31 March 2027 at 11:59 PM ET is left out of the comparison; if that happens to Nebraska, the answer is NO. Official results from the three states' election authorities decide; reliable election reporting may also be used.
Each percentage is the market’s current estimate of how likely that answer is. A contract settles at 100p if the answer is right and at 0p if it is wrong.
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