Prediction
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As of 30 October 2026, 08:58 UTC, versus prices Yes at a 2% chance and No at 98%.
YES if the candidate who wins California's 9th congressional district (CA-09) in the U.S. House election on 3 November 2026 belongs to the Republican Party. Party is read from the winner's ballot-listed or otherwise clear affiliation at the moment all 2026 House races have been conclusively called; a winner listed as neither Democratic nor Republican is counted with the party they most recently said they would caucus with at that moment. NO if the winner belongs to any other party. Agreement among reliable news reports decides; if doubt remains, only the official U.S. result reported by the Federal Election Commission (fec.gov) counts. Counting may run past election night (ET); the answer waits for the result and no separate deadline applies.
Each percentage is the market’s current estimate of how likely that answer is. A contract settles at 100p if the answer is right and at 0p if it is wrong.
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