Prediction
Answer Options
As of 30 October 2026, 10:05 UTC, versus prices Yes at a 62% chance and No at 38%.
YES applies only if Morena ranks first by seats won in the 35-seat Congress of Yucatán, Mexico, after the state legislative election scheduled for 6 June 2027. Rank parties by seats won. If parties tie, the party whose proportional-representation list has more valid votes ranks higher; if still tied, the listed party whose name comes first alphabetically ranks higher. The listed parties are Morena, PAN, PRI, PVEM, PT and MC. Credit each district seat to the party assigned the elected deputy in the final official results under the coalition or common-candidacy agreement, never to a coalition as a whole; credit each proportional seat to its allocated party. Ignore later party or parliamentary-group changes. If another party ranks first, NO. If no definitive result exists by 31 March 2028 at 11:59 PM ET, the event outcome is Other and this binary item resolves NO because Other is not a listed answer. Reputable news reports may indicate the result; official results from Yucatán and Mexico, including the Yucatán electoral institute (IEPAC), decide when needed.
Each percentage is the market’s current estimate of how likely that answer is. A contract settles at 100p if the answer is right and at 0p if it is wrong.
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