Prediction
Answer Options
Learn as you go
As of 30 October 2026, 10:03 UTC, versus prices Yes at a 7% chance and No at 93%.
YES applies if Silver Bulletin’s finalized approval-rating series records Donald Trump at 44% or higher on any date from 1 January through 31 December 2026. Use the green trend-line value after the next data point has finalized the prior one. If Silver Bulletin becomes permanently unavailable, use RealClearPolitics. If the 31 December figure is not published by 4 January 2027 at 12:00 PM ET, use the earlier finalized observations. Silver Bulletin is primary and the named fallback is secondary; no other poll average qualifies. If no qualifying observation exists, NO applies. Changes to Silver Bulletin’s calculation methodology do not change which published series determines the answer.
Each percentage is the market’s current estimate of how likely that answer is. A contract settles at 100p if the answer is right and at 0p if it is wrong.
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