Prediction
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As of 30 October 2026, 10:15 UTC, versus prices Yes at a 97% chance and No at 3%.
YES if the Republican nominee wins Arkansas's 2026 U.S. Senate election, including any runoff. If Tom Cotton is replaced as the Republican nominee before election day, YES follows the replacement nominee; a candidate running as an independent never counts as the Republican nominee, whatever that candidate's party ties. NO if any other candidate wins. The Associated Press, Fox News and NBC decide when all three call the same winner; otherwise the official certified result decides. The general election is scheduled for 3 November 2026, with election-day status measured at 11:59 PM ET; any runoff remains part of the election and later certification controls if calls are not unanimous.
Each percentage is the market’s current estimate of how likely that answer is. A contract settles at 100p if the answer is right and at 0p if it is wrong.
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