Prediction
Answer Options
As of 30 October 2026, 08:10 UTC, the most likely answer on versus is Republican 30–35% at a 28% chance, ahead of Republican 35–40% at 21% and Republican 15–25% at 12%.
YES goes to exactly one live bracket after the certified result for the VA-09 House election, scheduled for 3 November 2026, is available. Compute the margin as the absolute percentage-point difference between the two leading candidates, dividing each candidate’s valid votes by all valid votes cast. Democratic and Republican labels mean the nominees of those parties; independent candidates do not fill either party label, and if a named nominee is replaced before election day, the replacement is used. A value exactly on a bracket boundary uses the higher bracket. If candidates tie for first, use the lowest bracket for the listed candidate whose ballot surname comes first alphabetically; a listed-versus-unlisted tie uses the listed candidate, while a tie only among unlisted candidates is Other. Use the official count once it is final. A recount begun before final certification keeps the prediction open until the recount and official count are complete. The state electoral authority’s certified result is primary, with an overwhelming body of independent reports as fallback. If the result is not definitive by 30 June 2027, 11:59 PM ET, use Other.
Each percentage is the market’s current estimate of how likely that answer is. A contract settles at 100p if the answer is right and at 0p if it is wrong.
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