Prediction
Answer Options
As of 30 October 2026, 08:10 UTC, versus prices Ann Wagner (R) at a 64% chance and Fred Wellman (D) at 40%.
YES goes to the answer for the party that wins the U.S. House seat for Missouri's 2nd congressional district (MO-02) at the 2026 midterm elections, held on 3 November 2026 (ET). Each answer stands for a party, not for one person: 'Republican Party' (candidate: Ann Wagner) is YES if the winner's party is Republican and 'Democratic Party' (candidate: Fred Wellman) is YES if it is Democratic, even if the winner is another candidate of that party. The winner's party is the affiliation shown on the ballot, or otherwise clearly identifiable, at the moment every 2026 U.S. House race has been conclusively called. A winner with no Democratic or Republican ballot affiliation counts for the party they most recently said they would caucus with, judged at that same moment. If the winner counts for neither party, both answers are NO; at most one answer can be YES. Broad agreement among reliable election reporting decides; if anything about the outcome is ambiguous, the official results of the U.S. Federal Election Commission (fec.gov) decide. There is no deadline for the call: a result confirmed days or weeks after election day still counts.
Each percentage is the market’s current estimate of how likely that answer is. A contract settles at 100p if the answer is right and at 0p if it is wrong.
Reported by versus Markets
