Prediction
Answer Options
As of 30 October 2026, 08:07 UTC, versus prices Yes at a 3% chance and No at 97%.
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled for November 3, 2026. This market resolves Yes if, as a result of the midterms, the Republican Party controls the U.S. presidency, controls the U.S. House of Representatives, and holds at least 60 seats in the U.S. Senate. Otherwise, it resolves No. Resolution is based on the results of all congressional elections, including special elections, scheduled to occur in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election could change the outcome, the market stays open until that runoff is conclusively called by the resolution sources. A party is considered to control the House if it wins a majority of voting seats. If House control is ambiguous under these rules, the market resolves according to the party affiliation of the first Speaker of the U.S. House selected after the 2026 midterms. A candidate’s party is determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation at the time the 2026 midterms are conclusively called by the resolution sources. A candidate with no ballot-listed Democratic or Republican affiliation is assigned to whichever of those parties they most recently expressed intent to caucus with at that time. If a Senate seat is vacant but has no corresponding election in November 2026, it is treated as held by the party of its most recent incumbent. Resolution sources are the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. If all three do not reach consensus on the relevant races, resolution is based on official certification.
Each percentage is the market’s current estimate of how likely that answer is. A contract settles at 100p if the answer is right and at 0p if it is wrong.
Reported by @Xander24Xand
