Prediction
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As of 30 October 2026, 10:02 UTC, versus prices Yes at a 6% chance and No at 94%.
YES applies only if PVEM is first when the 42 seats of the Congress of Oaxaca, Mexico, are ranked by seats won in the state legislative election scheduled for 6 June 2027. Include every party, whether listed or not. If seat totals tie, compare the valid votes for each party's proportional-representation list; more votes rank higher. If that remains tied, compare the parties' listed names alphabetically. For each district seat, follow the party assigned to the elected deputy in the final certification issued by Oaxaca's state electoral body (IEEPCO); when a coalition or common slate won, apply its registered seat-allocation agreement and do not count the coalition itself. Credit proportional seats to the party receiving the allocation. Later changes of party affiliation or parliamentary group do not alter these totals. If another party is first, the answer is NO. If authorities have not established a definitive result by 31 March 2028 at 11:59 PM ET, the outcome is Other and every listed answer is NO. Reputable news coverage may indicate the result. If coverage is unclear or conflicts, the official determination of Oaxaca's state electoral body (IEEPCO), together with the governments of Oaxaca and Mexico, controls.
Each percentage is the market’s current estimate of how likely that answer is. A contract settles at 100p if the answer is right and at 0p if it is wrong.
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