Prediction
Answer Options
As of 30 October 2026, 10:03 UTC, the most likely answer on versus is Republican margin 5% to under 10% at a 27% chance, ahead of Republican margin 15% to under 20% at 27% and Republican margin 10% to under 15% at 24%.
This prediction covers the 2026 election to the U.S. House of Representatives in Oklahoma's 5th congressional district (OK-05), expected to be held on 3 November 2026. The winning margin is the gap, in percentage points, between the candidates who finish first and second; each candidate's share is their valid votes divided by the total of all valid votes in the race. A displayed answer is YES when the first-place finisher is the nominee of that answer's party and the margin lies inside its range; “Democratic candidate wins” is YES whenever the Democratic nominee finishes first, by any margin; a margin exactly on a boundary belongs to the higher range. The Republican and Democratic options stand for the nominees of those two parties, including a replacement nominee chosen before election day; an independent candidate never stands for either party. If two or more candidates finish level in first place on valid votes, a tie between the two party nominees makes YES the lowest option of the nominee whose ballot-listed surname comes first alphabetically (“Republican margin 0% to under 5%” or “Democratic candidate wins”), and a tie between one party nominee and any other candidate makes YES that nominee's lowest option. Every displayed answer is NO if the winner is neither party's nominee, if only other candidates share first place, or if the result is not known definitively by 30 June 2027 at 11:59 PM ET, so at most one displayed answer can be YES. The official count decides once it has been certified; if a recount starts before certification, the prediction stays open until the recount ends and the count is certified. Official results from the Oklahoma authority that certifies the election decide; overwhelming agreement in reliable news coverage may also be used.
Each percentage is the market’s current estimate of how likely that answer is. A contract settles at 100p if the answer is right and at 0p if it is wrong.
Reported by versus Markets
