Prediction
Answer Options
As of 30 October 2026, 08:59 UTC, versus prices Democratic Party at a 79% chance and Republican Party at 21%.
Exactly one listed party is YES: the party controlling the Arizona State Senate after the 2026 midterm election. A party controls the chamber when it holds more than half of its voting seats; if neither does, use the affiliation of the first selected Senate President after the election. Count regular and special Senate elections scheduled for November 2026 as of 31 October 2026, including qualifying runoffs; assign a vacant seat with no November election to the affiliation of its most recent holder. For a contested seat, attribute it to the party on the winning candidate's ballot; a later party change or vacancy before chamber organisation does not alter that assignment. Seats not contested in the election follow the party holding them on election day; a later change or vacancy after election day does not alter that attribution. Independents who caucus with or announce an intent to caucus with a party count for that party; unresolved caucus choices stay open until the announcement or 4 January 2027 at 11:59 PM ET, then count for no party. If no Senate President is chosen by 31 March 2027 at 11:59 PM ET, use Other. Official state electoral-authority and Arizona Senate information, together with broad agreement among reliable reports, are the sources for deciding the result.
Each percentage is the market’s current estimate of how likely that answer is. A contract settles at 100p if the answer is right and at 0p if it is wrong.
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